Ask most IT leaders how long their IBM i will last, and you’ll usually get a confident answer. The hardware is on a regular refresh cycle. The operating system continues to receive updates. The applications have run for decades with barely a hiccup.
By nearly every technical measure, the platform has plenty of life left. But that’s not the question that should be keeping leaders up at night.
As the Gray Wave of retiring IBM i talent continues to build, the more pressing question isn’t about the machine at all. It’s about the people behind it and how long your organization can keep running without them.
Let’s start with where the real crisis sits.
Your IBM i isn’t Running Out of Life
IBM i has earned its reputation for reliability. It quietly runs financial, inventory, order processing, and other core operations for organizations across industries, often with very little drama.
What is running out is the expertise that keeps it that way. Many of the professionals who built and maintain these environments are now approaching retirement. And the talent pipeline that never fully refilled is one of the main reasons the Gray Wave is hitting IBM i harder than other established systems.
IBM i users are feeling the strain. According to the 2026 IBM i Marketplace Survey, 69% of survey respondents ranked IBM i skills as their top concern.
Think of It This Way
Your IBM i is like a well-maintained car. The engine is fine. The tires are good. It starts every morning without fail.
But for years, only one person has driven it. They know that the third gear needs a gentle touch in cold weather, which warning light can safely be ignored, and exactly how hard to press the brake on the hill by the office.
So, when that driver retires, who takes the wheel?
The car hasn’t changed. What’s changing is that the only person who knows how to drive it is leaving. And much of that know-how was never written down, so it walks out the door with them.
What You Should Really Be Asking
Most IT planning conversations start with an incomplete question:
- The usual question: How long will our IBM i last?
- The better question: How long can we run our IBM i without the people who understand it?
The first question is about technology, and the answer is usually reassuring. The second is about business continuity, and the answer is often far less comfortable.
Take the 1-Minute IBM i Gray Wave Self-Check
The six questions below will give you a sense of how exposed your IBM i environment is to the Gray Wave. Answer based on where your team is today, not where you plan to be tomorrow. Keep track of your points as you go:
| A = 1 point | B = 2 points | C = 3 points | D = 4 points |
Question 1: What’s the average age of your IBM i team?
• A. Under 40 (1 point)
• B. 40–49 (2 points)
• C. 50–59 (3 points)
• D. 60 or older (4 points)
Why it matters: Age alone doesn’t determine risk. However, the older the team, the more likely it is that retirements are approaching and that several could land within the same few years. When departures cluster, there is little time for successors to learn from the people they are replacing.
Question 2: How well is your IBM i environment documented?
• A. Fully documented (1 point)
• B. Mostly documented (2 points)
• C. Partially documented (3 points)
• D. Barely documented (4 points)
Why it matters: Code tells you what a program does. Documentation explains why: the business rules, dependencies, and workarounds that have been built up over decades. When that knowledge lives only in people’s heads, each retirement risks a permanent loss.
Question 3: How many people on your team can solve a critical IBM i issue today?
• A. 6 or more (1 point)
• B. 4–5 (2 points)
• C. 2–3 (3 points)
• D. 1 or none (4 points)
Why it matters: This is your single-point-of-failure test. If only a few people can resolve a critical issue, the risk isn’t just retirement; it includes vacations, sick days, and resignations. Concentrated expertise means concentrated risk.
Question 4: If your top IBM i developer left tomorrow, who would step in?
• A. A designated, prepared successor (1 point)
• B. An experienced backup, but no formal plan (2 points)
• C. A team member who would need training (3 points)
• D. No one (4 points)
Why it matters: If no one is ready to step in, experienced IBM i talent can take months to find and onboard. Without a successor already in place, organizations are often forced to react under pressure instead of following a plan.
Question 5: Could a new hire on your IBM i environment become productive within 3 months?
• A. Yes, easily (1 point)
• B. Yes, with some guidance (2 points)
• C. Only with significant effort (3 points)
• D. Almost impossible (4 points)
Why it matters: This question measures how accessible your environment is to someone new. Clear documentation, readable code, and structured onboarding shorten the learning curve. Tightly coupled, sparsely commented applications lengthen it, sometimes well beyond a year.
Question 6: How much of your core business run on IBM i?
• A. A small portion (1 point)
• B. Some of it (2 points)
• C. Most of it (3 points)
• D. Nearly all of it (4 points)
Why it matters: This is your impact multiplier. The same knowledge gap carries far greater consequences when IBM i runs order processing, inventory, finance, and billing than when it supports a handful of secondary applications.
Tally Your Score
Add up your points across all six questions to find your estimated timeline.
| Score | Estimated Time Remaining | What’s Next for You |
| 6–9 | More than 10 years | You’re in a strong position. Keep planning ahead. |
| 10–14 | 6–10 years | Knowledge is becoming concentrated. Start preparing. |
| 15–19 | 3–5 years | The Gray Wave may already be affecting your organization. Time to act. |
| 20–24 | Under 3 years | A single retirement could create serious risk. Act now. |
Note: This is a directional estimate, not a prediction. Every IBM i environment is different, so use it as a starting point for a conversation with your team.
What Your Score Means
6–9: Strong Position (More Than 10 Years)
Your team likely has depth, your environment is largely documented, and you have succession coverage in place. That’s a position worth protecting. Keep documentation current as systems change, continue developing your bench, and revisit this self-check every year. A single retirement announcement can shift your score quickly.
10–14: Knowledge is Becoming Concentrated (6–10 Years)
You have time, but the window is narrowing. Critical knowledge is starting to sit with fewer people. This is the ideal moment to begin structured documentation of your most important applications, identify potential successors, and widen your hiring criteria beyond candidates with years of IBM i experience.
15–19: The Gray Wave May Already Be Here (3–5 Years)
Your organization is likely already feeling the effects: stretched teams, slower turnaround on changes, and growing reliance on a few key people. Prioritize documenting your highest-risk systems, start hiring now so new team members can overlap with your experts, and consider external support to relieve pressure on your current team.
20–24: Serious Risk (Under 3 Years)
A single retirement or resignation could disrupt core business operations. Act in weeks, not quarters. Schedule knowledge-capture sessions with your key people right away, use AI-powered tools like Impact Analysis (iA) to map dependencies across your codebase, and engage experienced IBM i professionals for continuity coverage while you build your internal team.
Your Next Step: Protecting Critical IBM i Knowledge
The clock isn’t ticking on IBM i. It’s ticking on the expertise that keeps it running.
The platform will keep doing what it has always done. The real question is whether your organization will still have the people and the knowledge to run it when your most experienced professionals move on.
Whatever your score, the next step is the same: build a plan. In the next post of this series, The 4 Parts of Planning for the IBM i Gray Wave, we will walk through a practical framework to protect critical IBM i knowledge and prepare for what’s ahead.
If your results raised concerns, you don’t have to work through them alone. Our IBM Champions can help you identify knowledge gaps, reduce dependency on key people, and create a roadmap for long-term IBM i continuity. Start the conversation with our experts.
